There are several factors which determine the lifespan of coal reserves. Current estimates place coal’s lifespan to be between 133 and 435 years.
The Worldometer organization places the estimate at 133 years while the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) predicts 435 years for total recoverable US reserves. In South Africa, Eskom, the national power utility, estimates the country’s reserves at 53 billion tonnes, which indicates that their reserves will easily last for another 200 years at current rates of coal extraction.
Now let’s explore the various factors that influence the longevity of coal.
Coal Exploration: As new coal deposits are discovered around the world, it is highly likely that the new discoveries will further extend the lifespan of coal.
Technological Advances: There have been continuous developments in mining technologies which are enabling us to extract coal from deposits which were previously thought to be unviable economically. As these advances continue, they will allow us access to coal which was earlier thought to be in inaccessible areas or was too uneconomical to mine.
New technologies are also finding new uses for coal which could impact consumption and hence longevity.
Future Consumption: This will depend on global energy policies and also the emergence of economically viable alternatives to coal. Wind, solar and hydro power are affected by vagaries of weather so the use of coal for power generation will continue. Were coal consumption to register a drop then it would lead to a longer lifespan.
So while estimates of coal’s lifespan vary, the actual figure could be shorter or longer depending on how the various factors play out.
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